Republicans have grown even more confident about the midterm elections, convinced that the economy — where the actual data look good, though public perception remains sour — is moving in their favor.
Republican strategists say a series of surveys, including national public polls and private polls done in select states and districts, show small changes in their favor. Some Democrats acknowledge they’ve become slightly more pessimistic.
Most everyone agrees this isn’t going to be a landslide election such as 2006 or 2010. “There are no signs of a supercharged electorate that can’t wait to vote,” says Bill McInturff, a leading Republican pollster who, together with Democrat Peter Hart, conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. “It’s different than a wave election, but it’s going to be a very good year for Republicans with a 50-50 shot of taking the U.S. Senate.”